KF Update – 2024 Mid-Year Review and Looking Ahead
4 Minute Read
Good afternoon, we hope this email finds you well and you are having a great summer. We wanted to take a look back at a great first half of the year for stocks and look ahead to the rest of 2024. We hope you find this information helpful.
Markets & Economy
Here are the 2024 year to date returns of several notable asset classes:
Dow Jones – Large US Value Companies – 4.39%
S&P 500 – Large US Companies – 17.69%
Nasdaq – Large US Growth Companies – 22.60%
Russell 2000 – Small/Mid US Companies – 1.30%
MSCI EAFE – Large International Companies – 7.47%
Barclays Bond Index – Aggregate US Bonds – 0.08%
Gold – 14.35%
Silver – 30.26
Bitcoin – 32.14%
*source Kwanti
US blue chip companies continue to pace markets, with the S&P 500 quietly up over 17% on the year. Some of this performance can be attributed to large technology companies, particularly Nvidia, and the race to be the leader in Artificial Intelligence (AI).
I use the word ‘quietly’ because stock markets rarely shoot to the moon overnight, it is more of a slow growth trajectory or ‘melt up’ that can last several years. We call these markets bull markets, and they are largely ignored by the mainstream media, so they tend to happen when we are not paying much attention.
On the other hand, when markets decline by 20% or more from their high, we consider these bear markets. These declines tend to happen relatively quickly, more dramatically, but they tend to be short-lived. They also become the leading story in mainstream media, so we are much more aware of these moves in the market.
Below is an excellent graph that illustrates both bull and bear markets over the past 40+ years.
Notice the length of the average bear market going back to 1980; 282 days (about 9 and a half months). That is an important statistic because as stressful as these bear markets can be, historically we have recovered from them relatively quickly and then spent several years following an upward trend.
Looking ahead to the rest of 2024
I have detailed in past emails the lack of correlation between US Presidential elections and the performance of the stock market. There will be a lot of noise this fall, and again, I just encourage clients to continue focusing on investing for many years down the road, not just the next 4 years.
One thing we will be keeping a close eye on is around tax planning. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 is set to expire January 1st, of 2026. We have a relatively good idea of what the tax landscape will look like in 2024 and 2025, but 2026 could be completely different. We will continue to communicate any significant changes to tax legislation as it becomes clearer.
Estate Planning
We have been developing relationships with several local attorneys that specialize in estate planning. If this type of planning is something that has been on your list, but you do not know where to start, we can provide referrals, schedule an initial consultation, and I can attend the meetings with you.
Review Meeting
If you would like to sit down and review your accounts, discuss tax or estate planning, or just have a few questions, always feel free to email me directly at clinton@kanefp.com, or call/text the office at (315) 801-9028.We hope you find this information helpful, and you have a wonderful summer!
Best,
Clint, Renee, & Kristi