KF UPdate – Taxes, IRAs, & Market Thoughts

4 Minute Read

Good afternoon and Happy Spring!  A beautiful few days in the forecast in upstate New York, golf courses are starting to open, and Syracuse came out with a great performance and win in the opening round of the NCAA tournament!  Things are certainly looking up after a long and challenging year for all of us.

I wanted to touch on a few items in terms of annual IRA contributions, updates to tax filing, and some of my thoughts around the markets.  I hope you find this information helpful, and as always, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to contact our office.

Tax & IRA Updates:

  • The 2020 tax filing deadline has been extended to May 17th, 2021. 
  • This also includes the deadline for IRA contributions for 2020.  You can contribute up to $6,000 to an IRA if under the age of 50; $7,000 if over the age of 50.  If you wish to still make a 2020 IRA contribution, please contact the office and we will coordinate that for you.
  • The first $10,200 of unemployment benefits received in 2020 is not federally taxable if your Adjusted Gross Income is under $150,000. 
    • If you have already filed your taxes, the IRS has issued guidance to not amend just yet, they are going to try and issue refunds.
  • Recovery Rebate Credit – The stimulus checks that went out last year for $1,200 and then $600 were based off of 2018 or 2019 income.  If you did not receive stimulus checks because your income was too high for those years, but your 2020 income was under those thresholds, you can receive a refundable tax credit when you file your 2020 taxes for the amounts of the stimulus you didn’t receive.
  • Another round of stimulus checks started going out this past week.  To see if/when you will receive your payment, you can use the following link to check the IRS website:

Get My Payment

  • The child tax credit was increased from $2,000 to $3,600 for each child under the age of 6, and $3,000 for those ages 6 to 17.  They are still working through the details of how that money is going to be delivered to eligible parents, so stay tuned on this front.

Market Thoughts:
After a strong start to the year, markets have cooled off recently as bond yields have spiked; more on that later. 

The S&P 500 is up around 4.5% on the year, US Value companies have outpaced US Growth companies year to date in a reversal of what we saw in 2020, and Small US companies have outpaced them both.  Diversification and rebalancing continue to be an important staple our ongoing portfolio management process.

Currently, the metric I am most closely following is inflation and bond yields.  As the economy continues to recover, and as these tax credits/stimulus get to consumers, inflation and higher bond yields could follow.  What does this mean for investments?

Longer duration bonds could go down, we are positioning client portfolios by keeping our durations shorter in maturity.  As an example, TLT (we do not hold this fund in client accounts), a 20+ year treasury bond fund is down over 14% year to date.  

Growth company values can decline.  A key calculation in determining the value of a growth oriented company is closely tied to yields.  If yields go up, valuations go down and vice versa.  The Russell 1000 Growth index is up 1.19% for the year while the Russell 1000 Value index is up over 11%.

Cash savings could lose purchasing power.  With bank yields low, any significant pickup of inflation will hurt those with significant cash savings as purchasing power would decline.  If you have significant cash savings, consider opening an investment account with monthly contributions to take advantage of dollar cost averaging and help protect against rising inflation.

As I always advise, there is no way to predict how the markets will perform over short periods of time.  Who would have thought the S&P 500 would be up over 18% in 2020 in the face of a global pandemic and contentious election season. 

We could see a strong economic recovery and record GDP numbers, and a flat market in 2021, there is just no way of really telling.  Diversification, quality investments, and ongoing rebalancing (especially during times of market weakness) continue to be an excellent way to grow capital over longer periods of time.

If you have any questions at all, please do not hesitate to contact the office.  If you would like to schedule a meeting, you can use the blue button below which is directly linked to my calendar.  Have a great Spring!


KF Update – Gamestop Craziness

3 Minute Read

While the price swings in GameStop are getting the headlines, that is just the tip of the iceberg of one of the most incredible stories, and incredible weeks in Wall Street history.  When AOC and Don Trump Jr. are on the same side of an issue, it has to be quite the story!  Let’s dive into what we just witnessed this past week:

What is GameStop?
A brick-and-mortar retail store that sells video games, has been trending towards bankruptcy, and traded at around $20 per share to start the year 2021.

What happened this week?
The price per share skyrocketed to as much as $468 yesterday and is currently trading around the $330s.

Why did the price go up so dramatically?
A group of day traders who had been sharing their trading strategies on the social media platform Reddit, jumped into the stock and then the power of the internet took over.  The news of the buying of GameStop, along with several other distressed companies spread, and day traders around the country piled in, sending their stock prices soaring.

Sounds great for those traders, what’s the controversy?
While it was great for these day traders, some big time Wall Street hedge funds were crushed.  These hedge funds had been betting against GameStop along with several other distressed companies through a trading strategy called “Short Selling.”  If the stock price goes down, the hedge funds make money, but if it goes up, they lose money.  The higher the share price goes, the more the hedge funds lose; in essence, there is no limit on the losses if the stock price keeps rising.

At least one hedge fund, Melvin Capital needed emergency cash infusions.  Worse yet, the trading strategy of “Short Selling,” when it goes really wrong, the hedge funds actually have to turn around and buy the stock at these elevated prices.  This is called a Short Squeeze and is contributing to the dramatic price increases in these stocks.

Disclosure: Kane Financial does not engage in short selling, investing in hedge funds, or any other exotic trading strategies.  We stick to the boring (yet effective) long-term buy & hold strategy using low cost index funds, a strong tilt towards quality and value, diversification, and ongoing rebalancing.

What is Robinhood and where does it fall into this story?
Robinhood is a trading app that you can download onto your phone, and trade using many of the same sophisticated strategies that Wall Street firms can use.  This app has helped to democratize trading and make markets available to anybody for no cost to the user.  This is primarily the way that these Reddit users and day traders around the country access markets and trade these stocks.

So it sounds like a bunch of day traders outsmarted the Wall Street professionals, great story right?
Not so fast, mysteriously, yesterday morning Robinhood suspended trading on GameStop and these other distressed companies that the day traders were piling into.  They only allowed these stocks to be sold, but not purchased.  This in turn sent their stock prices tumbling, and is being speculated, helped the hedge funds stop the bleeding and get out of their short positions.  Trading today resumed and went back to normal.  Many of these day traders were furious.

Why would Robinhood do this, infuriate their clientele and help out Wall Street billionaires?
The million, or in this case, billion-dollar question.  The CEO of Robinhood came out and claimed it was due to Net Capital Requirements, liquidity levels that brokerages must keep in case of market stresses and/or panices.

Others are speculating that Wall Street’s elite leaned on their power/influence to get Robinhood (and several other trading platforms) to change the rules in the middle of the night to tank these stocks and save themselves. 

Is what Robinhood did criminal and market manipulation?
This is where congress and the SEC are getting involved, stay tuned.

Bigger Picture
There was a tear in the matrix, you could say.  Regular investors think the rules of the investing game changed right in front of their eyes to help Wall Street’s elite class. 

Ironically, I think Bitcoin and decentralized finance fits into this discussion as well (another article coming soon).  Bitcoin is a decentralized currency that is not controlled by one person, government, or corporation.  It’s owned and controlled by its users, and that is one of the many reasons for its popularity.  Bitcoin is part of a larger movement of decentralized finance, where third party intermediaries (those that wield the power/influence reference above), are eliminated and transactions occur directly between the parties involved.

I think we could see a dramatic shift in finance over this next decade (for the better), and what happened this week is an important part of that story.

If you have any questions at all, or would like to schedule a meeting you can do so utilizing the button below or simply calling our office.  Have a great weekend!


KF Update – Year End Planning

4 Minute Read

Good morning,

I hope this email finds you and your families well, and you had a wonderful Thanksgiving.

With the dust mostly settled around the election (except for an incredibly close local house seat), I thought we could shift focus to some year end planning items that could be helpful for clients to consider.

One popular planning tool that is available to clients is something called a Roth Conversion.  This means converting pre-tax money (within an IRA or 401k) to Roth.  The tax on the conversion would be paid now, but all Roth money including earnings is completely tax free going forward.  

Why would somebody do this, or why would it make sense?  If you are in a lower tax bracket now, which many retirees are, it could make sense to lock in these lower tax rates now.  Additionally, pre-tax monies are required to be distributed starting at age 72 (RMDs) to the tune of 4-5% per year to start.  At that point, you have less control over which tax bracket those distributions fall into.

We have our federal income tax brackets for 2020 below which is a tiered system.  If you are Married Filing Jointly (MFJ), your first $19,750 of income is taxed at 10%, between $19,750 to $80,250 at 12%, and then income above $80,250 jumps up to 22%!

For example, let’s say your taxable income for 2020 will be $70,000.  It might make sense to convert $10,250 from pre-tax to Roth, and “Fill Up The Bracket.”  This strategy can be done each year leading up to age 72, as a way to take more control over how your pre-tax monies are taxed.  This could be especially beneficial if you believe taxes will increase in the future.

Additionally, if an IRA balance is large, those Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) could put you into IRMAA surcharge range shown below.  These are additional premiums retirees would have to pay to Medicare if their income is high in retirement.

One of our newest pieces of financial planning software allows us to do a comprehensive tax analysis for clients, including modeling different scenarios and tax planning tips.  Please contact the office if you would like us to provide you with a comprehensive tax analysis.  As with all of our financial planning tools, there is no additional costs, all included in our service offering to clients.

Here is a list of other considerations for year end planning:

  • Save your charitable donation receipts, you can deduct $300 as an above the line deduction for 2020.
  • Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) were suspended in 2020, but will be reinstated for 2021.  If you had recently turned 72 or will in 2021, it could be beneficial to start planning for those distributions.  You can take them monthly, quarterly, lump sum, etc.
  • If gifting money, the annual exclusion is $15,000 per year, tax free.
  • Reviewing your investment allocations to ensure they still align with goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance.
  • Can you give yourself a “Raise for Retirement” in 2021, increasing contributions to IRAs and/or company sponsored retirement plans.
  • Review of estate planning documents and beneficiary designations to ensure they are up to date.
  • Are you eligible to contribute to an HSA, and if so, can you max those out for 2020?
  • If you have recently had a child, does staring a 529 make sense, and more importantly, do you have adequate life insurance coverage?
  • Qualified Charitable Distributions – If you will be taking RMDs in 2021, you can direct part of the distribution to a qualified charity.  Why do this?  Because unless you itemize, and very few people can, charitable contributions cannot be deducted from taxable income.  By sending money from your pre-tax IRA directly to your qualified charity of choice, your charitable donation can lower your taxable income.

The year 2020 has been difficult for all of us, to say the least.  Looking at the glass half full, we have some of the most amazing medical professionals and scientists in the world, working tirelessly on new treatments, the vaccine itself, and its distribution.  We are encouraged by the resiliency of the American people and the small businesses who are adapting to a new normal, and the bounce back in equity markets from one of the swiftest, most dramatic declines in its history.  While we have no idea what 2021 will hold, we are encouraged by these developments.

If you have any questions at all, or would like to schedule a meeting you can do so utilizing the button below or simply calling our office.  We wish you and your families a wonderful, safe, and healthy holiday season and look forward to a new year!


KF Update – Market Thoughts

4 Minute Read

Good morning, I hope this email finds you well and you are gearing up for Spring! I wanted to send along a brief email with some of my thoughts on the markets, the economy, and the Ukraine-Russia War.  If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact the office.

The Markets & Economy
Stocks have continued a volatile start to the year in the face of persistent inflation, higher energy prices, and now the conflict in Eastern Europe.  

The economy on the other hand is continuing to show strength, with last week’s jobs report coming in well above estimates.  Economists anticipated 400,000 new jobs added in February, and that number was actually 678,000, dropping the unemployment rate to 3.8%.  Unfortunately, solid economic news doesn’t equal ratings for most media platforms so this headline was quickly forgotten.

The Numbers
The S&P 500 is down roughly 12% since late December, while the Dow is hovering around a 10% decline.  When a major index drops from its high more than 10%, it’s considered a correction.  When an index falls 20% or more, it’s considered a bear market, which many times is accompanied by a recession.

On average, markets have a correction almost every year, while bear markets and recessions are more rare, and almost impossible to predict. 

For better context, here is a graph of the S&P 500 over the past 10 years:

Here is the last 25 years of the S&P 500

As you can see over many years, we have had corrections, bear markets, recessions, and the market continues to trend upwards and reward long-term investors.  As difficult as it can be to watch our investment accounts during these downturns, keeping that long-term perspective is one of the most important aspects of successful investing.

I’ve shared this next graphic several times, but it still rings true.  We understand that investing can be very much emotional, particularly in a 24 hour news cycle, social media world; it can be difficult to escape any sort of negative news.  That said, the most successful investors are able to set that emotion aside, tune out that noise, and simply ride out the ups and downs.

KF Portfolio Management
Client portfolios are positioned for rate increases and the possibility of elevated inflation for the foreseeable future.  We also do not own Emerging Market investments within client portfolios, and haven’t for several years.  Emerging Markets are those that invest in countries such as Russia, China, India, and Brazil.  For several years I have not felt comfortable investing client assets in those regions, and it turned out to be a good call as Russian stocks currently cannot be traded, and many Emerging Market Index Funds removed Russian companies after the escalation of the invasion on Ukraine. 

We may be rebalancing client portfolios in the coming weeks if there is more weakness in the equity markets, taking advantage of more attractive valuations.

The Ukraine – Russia War
First and foremost your heart goes out to the millions of people affected by this War.  It’s an awful human tragedy, and I couldn’t begin to understand what the Ukrainian people are going through.  I did a bit of research to try and better understand what exactly is going on, and I found this 9 minute video explaining the history behind the invasion.  This has been an ongoing situation for decades, and the invasion is the latest development.

Putin’s war on Ukraine, explained

In Summary
I do not know how long or what the end result of the War will be, when gas prices will come back under control, or when inflation will recede to more reasonable levels.  I do know that when these things happen, there will be several other headwinds both economically and politically that we will be dealing with and will always be dealing with as long term investors.

It’s not timing the market, but time in the market that leads to investing success.

We hope you find this information helpful, and again, please do not hesitate to contact the office with any questions.

Clint & Renee

KF Update – Market Thoughts

4 Minute Read

Good morning and Happy New Year!  We hope you all had a wonderful, healthy holiday with family and friends.

We wanted to share several brief thoughts around the markets and economy.  Hope you find this helpful.

What is going on in the markets?
The equity markets have been selling off over the past several weeks with the Nasdaq & Russell reaching correction territory as the Federal Reserve has changed course on its easy monetary policies.  A correction is when a major index (Nasdaq, Dow, Russell) drop 10% or more from its high.  Here are the numbers I calculated for the indexes from their peaks, which happened at different times throughout late last year:

Dow (US Value Focused Companies):  -4.75%
Nasdaq (US Technology Focused Companies): -11.32%
Russell (US Mid and Small Sized Companies): -17.17%
S&P 500 (US Large and Mid Sized Companies): -6.43%

Why are some indexes down more than others?
Interest Rate Expectations.  A rise in interest rates affects small, mid, and growth oriented companies more negatively than value oriented.  The valuation of those companies are much more reliant on future interest rate expectations as investors are generally paying for future profits.  Those future profits are less valuable with higher interest rates.

Why are interest rates going to rise?
The main tool to fight high inflation is to raise interest rates.  The Federal Reserve is planning for several interest rate hikes this year.  Additionally, they are downsizing their bond buying program in an effort to get the current inflation under control.

What does this mean for my investments?
Again, the short-term is always impossible to predict.  By almost all measures, stocks have been at frothy valuations for many months now; you could argue going back to late 2020.  That said, timing when to get in and out of the market is where investors can really hurt themselves. 

Let’s say you thought the market was over valued in December 2020, and you may have been correct and sold out.  You would have missed out on an incredible 2021 in the markets, an over 26% return from the S&P 500 alone!  Missing that kind of a year is devastating to a portfolio’s rate of return.

That said, I understand it’s difficult to just sit back and not do anything.  I feel like our human nature is to want to do something, change something when we see portfolios decrease during these times.  The best thing really is to just ride it out and focus on your long-term goals, which is why we are invested in the markets in the first place, long-term growth of our capital.

What are your thoughts on the markets, economy, and the sell off?
I am actually really encouraged, I know that sounds strange but let me explain!  Markets that simply go up and up are not healthy.  The Federal Reserve keeping interest rates near 0% and buying billions of bonds each month isn’t healthy for an economy long-term.

Valuations get too far away from reality, bubbles are created, and speculators are abound.  These sell offs provide opportunities for me as your investment advisor to add long-term positions to client portfolios at lower, more reasonable valuations.  

An end to easy monetary policies and higher than expected inflation means that our economy is strong enough to no longer need support from the Federal Reserve.  A rise in interest rates means that in a couple of years, retirees who typically have a higher allocation to bonds, may see more reasonable rates of return vs. the paltry 1-2% that bonds are currently paying.  

The markets may indeed continue to sell off, but for long-term investors, it presents a buying opportunity and encouraging signs for our economy.

Are you making any changes to my investments?
We added some inflation-protected bonds late last year, and bond maturities in client portfolios are short in anticipation of rising rates.  For non-retirement accounts, where applicable, we may do some tax loss harvesting. 

We will also be rebalancing client portfolios and taking advantage of any further weakness in the coming weeks.  Other than that, providing ongoing communication, keeping client portfolios high quality, diversified, and flexible is our main focus.

I hope you find this information helpful.  As always, any questions please do not hesitate to contact our office, and to schedule a review meeting simply click on the blue button below.

Clint & Renee

KF Update – Ways to Reduce Taxes

4 minute read

Tax and retirement plan laws seem to be evolving at rapid pace over the last several years.  The changes can seem confusing and difficult to keep up with so we thought it would be helpful to detail a few easy ways an individual and/or business can reduce their taxes. 

Retirement Plan Contributions: An employer sponsored retirement plan (401k, 403b) remains one of the most effective way to save for retirement and lower taxes.  Pre-tax contributions will lower one’s federal and state taxable income.  For 2021, an individual can contribute up to $19,500 pre-tax to these plans; $26,000 for those over the age of 50.

If you are retiring with unused sick/vacation time, ask your Human Resources department if they would deposit those monies directly into your 401k/403b as a pre-tax contribution instead of cutting you a taxable lump sum check, especially if you do not need that money right away.

For those who are not covered by an employer sponsored plan, a Pre-Tax Individual Retirement Account (IRA) could be an excellent alternative.  An individual can contribute $6,000 to a Pre-Tax IRA for 2021 and $7,000 for those over age 50.  These contributions will also lower one’s federal and state taxable income.

Inherited IRA: Non-spouse beneficiaries (such as a child) of pre-tax retirement accounts (such as the accounts referenced above) will pay ordinary income taxes on any distributions from these accounts.  Instead of taking a fully taxable distribution upon inheritance, a non-spouse beneficiary can open an inherited IRA and spread the tax liability out over a period of 10 years.  If the beneficiary is no more than 10 years younger than the decedent, the beneficiary can stretch the distributions out over their lifetime.

Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs): If you cannot itemize your taxes (which few people can anymore) and are over the age of 70.5, you can send charitable contributions directly from a pre-tax retirement account to a qualified charity of your choice.  This distribution is not taxable; thus, you can make a charitable donation with pre-tax dollars instead of after-tax dollars from a personal account.  If you are already taking Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) which must begin at age 72, you can direct a part of this distribution to a charity of your choice which will in turn lower your taxable income.

Roth IRA Conversions: A Roth IRA works the opposite of a Pre-tax IRA, taxes on contributions are paid at the onset, and the growth is tax free when withdrawn.  Individuals in lower tax brackets (10-12%) could consider converting pre-tax retirement account monies to a Roth IRA, and lock-in paying lower tax rates. 

For retirees who experience a drop in their income from their working days, annual Roth conversions allow them to control the tax bracket where their distributions are applied.  For those who wait until age 72, the distribution amounts are set by the IRS and a person will have less control as to which tax bracket they fall into.

As an example, an individual age 72 in 2021, with a $1,000,000 pre-tax retirement account, would be required to distribute $39,062.50 and pay taxes on this amount.  This could cause social security taxes to increase and even send a taxpayer into the IRMAA territory, (Medicare surcharge for those in higher tax brackets) if they have additional income such as a pension.

Small Business Retirement Plans: As a small business owner, you can choose one of several retirement plans to save pre-tax dollars and lower your taxable income.  SEP IRAs can be ideal for solo business owners, where the owner can save up to 25% of their net income or W2 wages up to $58,000 for 2021. 

A SIMPLE IRA can be ideal for a small business with a handful of employees, allowing for pre-tax contributions of up to $13,500 for 2021 ($16,500 for those over age 50) along with a 3% match.  The match is available to the owner(s) and is tax deductible for the business.

A solo 401(k) can be utilized by a solo business owner and/or a business that only employs immediate family members.  This plan allows for pre-tax contributions up to $58,000 for 2021.

Capital Gains Taxes: A couple that is married filing jointly will owe $0 on long term capital gains and dividends if their taxable income is $80,800 or lower in 2021 ($40,400 for single filers).  Taxpayers that are holding onto long-term appreciated assets (held more than 1 year) and are under that threshold could consider realizing some of those gains while not having to pay the 15% capital gains tax.

Some other tax tidbits: Social Security is not taxable in New York.  Additionally, the first $20,000 of private pension and/or pre-tax IRA distributions for those over age 59.5 are not state taxable.

While this is just a brief overview of simple ways to reduce your tax liability, we do hope you find this informative and helpful and encourage you to engage in further discussions with your tax and/or financial professionals.

Kane Financial, LLC is a registered investment adviser in the State of New York. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Kane Financial, LLC and its representatives are properly registered or exempt from registration.

This information is not intended as tax, accounting, or legal advice and is for informational purposes only. The information provided should not be relied on for, tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction.

KF Update – New Team Member & Business Updates

4 Minute Read

Good morning, I hope this email finds you well and you are having a great summer!

I am really excited to announce that we have officially added a new full-time team member to Kane Financial, Renee Jarosz.  

Renee lives in Frankfort with her husband Chris, and their 3 children Nolan, Sadie, and Nashton.  She is a Financial Paraplanner Qualified Professional (FPQP), and has spent over 12 years in the financial planning industry specializing in operations and client service.  This will be Renee’s main role at Kane Financial, and I am really excited to welcome her and introduce her to all of you.

Renee will be a regular presence in the office, helping me with the day to day operational activities of running the practice, along with helping clients with any and all questions if I am unavailable. 

Having Renee onboard will provide an even higher level of service to our clients, allowing me to step away from some of the day to day operational tasks and to focus even more on meeting with clients, financial planning, and investment management.

Other Business Updates:
We found that having a business phone line, business texting line, and separate fax line were super confusing for clients, so we have hired Ring Central and consolidated to a single number.  Going forward, our main business line (315) 801-9028 will be the only number clients need, and you can call, text, or fax to this one number.

In May, we hired a compliance consultant from XY Planning Network to assist with our ongoing compliance duties, and helping us to keep up on the ever changing regulatory landscape. 

XY Bean Counters was hired in the first quarter of 2021, they specialize in bookkeeping for independent financial planning practices.

Finally, I just wanted to detail services currently available to clients in addition to investment management:

Comprehensive Financial Planning & Income Projections – We can build you a complete picture (literally) of your finances including investment accounts, insurances, real estate, income, and provide income projections to help you plan and navigate your retirement.

Social Security Analysis – With your social security statement, we can take your earnings history and provide all of your options as to when the most ideal time may be for you and/or a spouse to start taking the benefit.

Tax Planning – We can take your most recent 1040 and provide a complete analysis of your taxes, along with scenario analysis for future years to help you proactively plan your taxes.

Insurance Planning – A review of your existing insurance policies, and recommendations as to if your coverage is sufficient, or if additional coverage could be helpful.  As a reminder, we do not sell any insurance, we simply provide our professional opinion on your existing coverage(s).

Outside Account Reviews – On a quarterly basis, we reach out to clients and ask them to provide us the most recent statements of any accounts we don’t directly manage so we can review the portfolio.  If you are not already on this list, please contact the office and we will reach out quarterly and review any outside investment accounts you have.

Thank you for the trust you have placed in our practice.  We are really excited to be able to continue putting resources back into the practice, and building out the services we can provide to our clients.

I hope you found this information helpful.  If you have any questions at all, please do not hesitate to contact the office.  Have a great Summer!


KF Update – Inflation Thoughts

6 Minute Read

Good afternoon, I hope this emails finds you well and you are getting ready for some wonderful weather headed our way in upstate New York.

I wanted to touch on a few of this week’s events in the markets, particularly the inflation data that came out.  If you have any questions at all, please do not hesitate to contact the office.

What was the inflation data that came out this week?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 4.2% year over year.  The CPI measures the price of a basket of goods including food, energy, housing, transportation, medical care, recreation, education, and apparel.  The CPI is the predominant index we use to measure inflation in the U.S. economy.

The basket is designed to be weighted as an approximation of how it would be weighted for a household.  As an example, housing is the largest component of the CPI accounting for around 42% of the index.

What does a 4.2% year over year increase mean, and what is the context?
The price of the basket of goods in the CPI rose by 4.2% in aggregate from April 2020 to April 2021.  Price increases in this basket over the past decade have been very low, around 2% and even lower some years. 

Is the higher than expected inflation the reason for the market decline this week?
It looks to be part of the reason.  Inflation affects stocks differently; for example growth oriented stocks (The Nasdaq) suffer more from inflation.  Higher inflation means higher interest rates, and their future earnings, of which their valuations are based upon, tend to decline.  Value oriented companies (Dow Jones) are less affected because their cash flows are more current.

Take Airbnb (ABNB) as an example.  They currently do not make a profit, so they have no earnings to share with investors.  If you invest in Airbnb today, you are not doing it to lose money, you are buying the company because you believe in the future they will have strong earnings.  Higher interest rates mean those future earnings are not as valuable.

If you buy Apple (AAPL) today, they are already a wildly profitable company so you as an investor would immediately be sharing in those profits.  A company like Apple could be less affected by higher interest rates, and higher prices could even start to flow into their bottom line, increasing their margins.

What is causing this higher than expected inflation?
It depends on the economist you ask.  My opinion is that it’s a combination of supply chain disruptions due to COVID that we are still dealing with world wide, accommodative monetary policies by the federal reserve, an increase in the supply of dollars from the many stimulus measures, and pent up demand from an economy that was essentially shut down for an entire year. 

For context, there is still widespread disagreement on the cause of the Great Depression and Great Financial Crisis; it’s difficult to pinpoint a single culprit to any event in such a complex world economy.

What does this mean for my portfolio?
For those of you that always read my emails you already know what I’m going to say!  The short-term is impossible to predict, but longer term stocks provide an excellent opportunity for growth.  As an investor, it’s truly important to periodically revisit goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance; and if any of those have changed in between our regularly scheduled review meetings, please contact the office so we can discuss.

What are my thoughts on inflation, the markets, and managing client portfolios?
To start with inflation, we need to take a more granular view of its components (see below).  All of us have different inflation rates because we spend our money differently.  If you are doing a home improvement project this year (gulp), the price increases you will experience will be much higher than most.  Did you buy a used car/truck?  Those prices are up 21% from a year ago!  If someone spends most of their money on cereal, dairy products, baked goods, soda, and alcohol they are probably in great shape (inflation wise that is).  You get the picture, while the 4.2% number was shocking and inflation is discussed in generalizations, it truly is important to take a more granular view of the measure of price changes in an economy. 

I would keep an eye on June, July, and August readings.  If they continue to come in at these elevated levels, it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to ignore these increases and dismiss them as “Transitory.”

Market wise, we’ve had a very encouraging recovery from one of the swiftest, most violent downturns we have ever had, and hopefully will ever again experience.  I’m very optimistic for the future, and bullish on stocks in general. 

In terms of portfolio management, I am avoiding longer dated bonds in client portfolios as they are also negatively affected by inflation and higher interest rates.  Ongoing rebalancing continues to be an important part of our portfolio management process.  If we do continue to see a downturn in the markets, I’ll be looking to buy into lower valuations as these opportunities arise.

I hope you found this information helpful.  If you have any questions at all, please do not hesitate to contact the office.  If you would like to schedule a meeting, you can use the blue button below which is directly linked to my calendar.  Have a great Summer!


Here are the components of the Consumer Price Index, and their percent rise from April 2020 to April 2021 taken from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.